"But, I think this is a normal, natural event, and has nothing to do with man causing it."-tvd
Of course "normal" is a difficult word to apply because we would need to agree on what it means first."Natural" can also be tricky.
"Normal" is usually used to say that nothing unusual is occurring. This is not the case. Something unusual is indeed happening. Does that mean it is not simply nature doing what it does? No, but it is not "normal" "typical" "similar to past behavior" within the historical conditions that have been in place for the past 11,000 years.
I could argue that anything humans do is "natural" because we are a part of the natural world and our behaviors are no less "natural" than that of lions or ants. So if our behavior has drastically changed the environment, well, that's perfectly "natural" so leave it alone.
But what is usually meant in this type of discussion is that if humans still practiced a subsistence lifestyle, what would conditions be like? Would the planet still be warming at the present rate? Would there still be a massive die-off of species and such rapid and drastic climatic changes occurring? If so, then our application of technology may be the only thing saving us from a hostile world.
Read this short article on historic global temperatures.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... 3olS3ZmkY4
This article has larger versions of the graph that are easier to read.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/a ... it/273870/
Look at the upward spike that occurs over the last 100 years. Would you call this "normal" relative to the last 11,000 years? Has this pattern occurred before? Has ANY pattern with similarly rapid change occurred?
No. So I wouldn't apply the term "normal" to what we are witnessing.
If you take "normal" to mean "still within the historical range of temperature for the past 11,000 years," then yes, for the moment it is still "normal". But keep in mind that the temperature change during the past 100 years has reversed 11,000 years of normal, gradual temperature changes. Is this within the "normal" behavior of the planet?
If this recent trend continues, Earth will exceed the historical "normal" range of temperature within a few decades.
Your question is, is it "natural"? That is, is it something that would have occurred whether we were here or not, all of it being caused by Earth's rotational wobble and sun spots and other features of our physical world?
You need to look at the information and draw your best conclusion as to the likeliest explanation for the historically unusual changes taking place.
Drawing the conclusion that it is all just a coincidence, that the unusual and rapid spike in temperature that could soon exceed historical limits just happens to be occurring at exactly the time humans have been dumping large quantities of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping compounds into the atmosphere, is a possible position to take. If you believe in coincidence, if this is your only explanation and what you believe, then I would be frightened if I were you. If something unusual is occurring that is a threat to our survival and for which we have no explanation, no way to understand it, we're really in trouble and we don't know what we could do to mitigate it or plan for the future.
We are dealing with fools like RealTool who argue that you can put a lake of 7 million cubic miles of water on top of a mountain and it will just sit there and miraculously refuse to flow down to the ocean. That is the mindset of those on your side of the issue.
If you really believe it is likely that all the tens of thousands of scientists working on climate around the world, from every discipline and every political and economic system are all just a bunch of liars and aren't actually concerned with what's occurring and are only looking to ride the gravy train, then I suggest you don't know any scientists.
My biggest worry is that someday lay people might actually get to understand what the scientists already know, and they will panic. Then it won't be pretty.
"Additionally, who says, and why, will this cause a downside? Why couldn't it just as easily be an upside? Parts of the world that had no growing season might be the new farm producers. I don't understand the gloom and doom aspect of all this. It could just as easily be a boom era. Oh yeah, I do understand the gloom and doom aspect....money."-tvd
You're probably right, some areas like Canada and Russia will do quite well as their growing seasons lengthen and agricultural production climbs, assuming they can get water to the right places at the right times. Big "if" there. But the gloom and doom aspect of this comes from realizing that all those living in the areas that will become uninhabitable aren't simply going to go away. Is johnforbes going to allow them to immigrate to the U.S.? Is any country in the temperate latitudes going to throw open their doors and accept a billion people? "Let 'em get in line with everyone else and wait until they die."-johnforbes (paraphrased)
Humans will behave as humans do. Look back at history and you will see what's coming down the pike when resources get scarce and the future holds no hope for them.
If that doesn't make you want to do anything possible to mitigate the scale of the problems we face, I don't know what will.