[RealJustme]

Ten years ago, the Pentagon paid for a climate study that put forth many scary scenarios.

Consultants told the military that, by now, California would be flooded by inland seas, The Hague would be unlivable, polar ice would be mostly gone in summer, and global temperatures would rise at an accelerated rate as high as 0.5 degrees a year.

None of that has happened, the scientists who conducted the study was wrong in every prediction.

Yet the 2003 report, “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,” is credited with kick-starting the movement that, to this day and perhaps with more vigor than ever, links climate change to national security.

The report also became gospel to climate change doomsayers, who predicted pervasive and more intense hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts.


Under the section “Warming up to 2010,” here are some of the report’s key scenarios, compared with what has transpired:

• By 2005, “more severe storms and typhoons bring about higher storm surges and floods.”

Today: The most recent U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report said it has “low confidence” of an increase in hurricanes or tornadoes. The U.S. is likely experiencing fewer tornadoes compared with 50 years ago, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This year’s tornado season was historically low.

The U.N. report said: “No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricane counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.”

In December, Roger Pielke, a scientist who has conducted extensive analysis of storm history, told a Senate panel: “There exists exceedingly little scientific support for claims found in the media and political debate that hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts have increased in frequency or intensity on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.”

The U.S. has not experienced a major hurricane in nearly 10 years.

• Global temperatures will increase by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and, in some areas, 0.5 degrees per year.

Today: Scientists skeptical of man-made climate change say satellite data show there has been no increase in 17 years. The Environmental Protection Agency, a strong climate change advocate, puts the decade increase at 0.3 degrees.

• There will be more floods, making coastal cities such as The Hague “unlivable” by 2007.

Today: The Hague is still livable.

The United Nations said this year: “There continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.”

• “Floating ice in the northern polar seas is mostly gone during the summer by 2010.”

Today: Arctic sea ice remains. 2.1 million square miles in 2013, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

• Sacramento River levees will fail, creating “an inland sea” in California that “disrupts the aqueduct system transporting water.”

Today: There are no inland seas in California.

Skeptics say the problem with such alarmist reports is that they become the playbook for the aggressive global warming movement, which repeats the scenarios as fact. President Obama last week predicted the world will experience more intense storms more frequently, even though U.N. scientists have not found that it is happening.

Said the Marshall Institute’s Mr. Kueter: “The real danger is that it bestows a sense of urgency that is not warranted and can lead to the dangerous expansion of U.S. security concerns, inappropriately applied resources and diversion of attention from more effective responses to known environmental challenges.”

Even last week President Obama quoted parts of the report, already proven to be wrong, as proof more has to be done to fight man made global warming.