The Amateur Message Boards of the World Famous VoyeurWeb

Fauci said yesterday that America may never get back to normal.

Dr. Zeke Emmanuel said we need 18 months more of lockdown.

We seldom elect doctors as politicians.

In this case, though, is Dr Fauci a genius or an idiot?

After all, Fauci said Feb 17 that the coronavirus threat was minuscule, you could go to the Super Bowl, and masks were not needed.

On March 30, WHO said you don't need masks.

On March 31, the Surgeon General said masks were not needed or useful.

The Imperial College London model said 2.2 million Americans could die. Totally wrong, and its author Ferguson now says so.

The other models were totally wrong too, so listening to Fauci and Birx did harm first to the economy and in the end we probably won't even have the 80,000 dead America had in the 2017-18 flu.

Just today, IHME revised downward from 240,000 deaths by Aug 1 to just 60,000 US deaths from covid by Aug 1.

So that would be 60k US deaths for 2019-20 verus 80k deaths from regular flu in 2017-18.

These are the same type of scientist telling us we have less than 12 years unless we pay carbon taxes.

According to Trump only 15 guys....tops were going to get the disease and it would miraculously go away.

Trump claimed that he had a "hunch" that it wasn't deadly.

Now Trump is promoting some quack drug cure...and this is coming from the guy who claimed that windmills cause cancer.

Trump was wrong early on, just as Obama and Cuomo and deBlasio were.

The doctors were also ALL wrong.

Imperial College and IMHE, these experts were ENTIRELY AND TOTALLY AND ABYSMALLY WRONG in their predictions.

Even now, only 100k dead globally versus 7.5 billion population.

In the US, 17k dead plus the 10k dead from regular flu = 27k dead which is a normal flu season death amount.

Now John Forbes serves up a dual dosage of steaming bullshit again, by claiming the model was "wrong."

But I'm betting that Johnnie's argument is mostly bullshit with a little dash of ignorance. Johnnie's argument is the same that those anti-vaxers make about measles. So why should we get measles shots when nobody gets measles any more?

If you were to ask the statisticians...they would tell you that all of the models are or were "wrong."

Now apparently we are not seeing the worst case projections from these prediction models becuase social distancing was more effective than they modeled for to begin with in the first place.

The IHME model does not predict perfectly. There is always going to be some prediction error in the model. Therefore there is not going to be a value but a range of outcomes. And the range of outcomes if you were wondering are based on the fact that the variables inputted into the prediction model were highly variable because 1) there is a limited amount of testing being performed 2) a limited amount of surveillance 3) virus which is rapidly spreading 4) variation of the implementation of social distancing .....and so on.

So essentially the predictive power of the models that these people develop is really based upon the accuracy of the data that is being inputted into the model.

Now John Forbes would have you believe the model is "wrong" which is nothing more than a dishonest partisan steaming heap of bullshit. But Johnnie would rather peddle the bullshit from the village idiot who's giving medical advice...he's the guy who thinks you get cancer from windmills.

Of course, we all know the models were grossly wrong.

It is also true that all of the scientists should have realized that China understated the total number of cases.

Closure of America was because Fauci and Birx, both Democrats, told Trump of the Imperial College model predicting 2.2 million US deaths.

In that event, I'd close too.

Even an ignorant slut like Elkin would too.

Now Johnnie is doubling down on his dumbness.

Prediction models have a wide range of outcomes based upon the accuracy of the inputs. If you have even bothered to pay attention to the graphs that they have been showing all over the place about "flattening the curve." By implementing social distancing that curve started to flatten thereby lowering the projected number of deaths. Now of course these prediction models are updated frequently to account for more data being inputted into the model. Thereby making the model more accurate.

But Johnnie doesn't really care. He would rather be some lying partisan douchebag rather than accept the reality. Science and statistical analysis means nothing to these people . First they will tell you how you're not qualified to discuss global warming becuase you don't have a Ph. D in climate science then all of a sudden they just happened to be qualified to discuss statistical data modeling. I dunno Johnnie....do you have any degrees in statistics/mathematics. You say the statistical models were "wrong" so why don't you go and explain why the prediction models were wrong?

Don't waste your time trying to explain science or scientific modeling to johnforbes.

He does not believe in science. As evidence of the truth of that statement, he supports EVERYTHING Trump has said for the past three months. ALL OF IT. He has never criticized anything Trump has said.

johnny's handlers will always convince him Trump was right all along and that the science was wrong all along.

That only proves that johnforbes doesn't understand what science is and that he doesn't CARE what science is.

Unlike young master Elkin, I do understand how a scientific model works.

The Imperial College model, like the IMHE model, worked on GIGO -- garbage in, garbage out.

17 million Americans are unemployed because Fauci and Birx did not understand that the Imperial model was wrong.

China lied about the total cases, and thus the mortality rates were overstated.

Johnnie...you don't know anything about statistical modeling. If you did then you would have never said the experts were wrong. You are a black and while thinker. Black and white thinking leads to two answers...right and wrong.

There is no right and wrong in this situation. Estimates on the high end were in the millions and on the low end they were approximately 50-100 (thousand). And we are on the low end due to social distancing. And Trump initially rejected the idea of social distancing. If he would have been a proponent much earlier then thousands of lives would have been saved.

Actually, Elkin, you are both right and wrong.

Any model, of course, is as good as its input.

But the mortality numbers out of China were always very, very, very suspicious, but those were utilized anyhow to arrive at the predictions of doom which let to the shutdown.

17 million jobs lost already, and about 5 to 10k die of various causes for every percent rise in job loss.

20k dead of coronavirus, which is 1/2 the suicide number every year in the US.

Every year, 600k die of heart disease and another 600k from cancer, and we don't shut down the country.

This was a mistake, and Fauci and Birx must be partly motivated by the Democrat hope to dislodge Trump via economic ruin.

"Every year, 600k die of heart disease and another 600k from cancer, and we don't shut down the country."-johnstupidfucker

Cancer and heart disease are not contagious, you imbecile. Shutting down the country would do nothing to curb infection and death numbers as it does with coronavirus.

Criminy, the gross ignorance of EVERY Trump supporter is staggering.

The potential for coronavirus spread was certainly there, but vastly overstated.

The 2.2 million estimate, with mitigation efforts, was a far cry from 20k.

Hippocrates, in the aptly titled Of the Epidemics, said: "First, do no harm."

With the shutdown, we first harmed 17 million jobless, and the chain of misery will follow, with likely harm to far, far more than 20k.