The Amateur Message Boards of the World Famous VoyeurWeb

Weather: predicting the next toss fo a coin, heads or tails. 50% chance of getting it right. A random choice. 1+-1.

Climate Science: predicting the outcome of the next 1,000,000 coin tosses, About 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails +- 1,000 standard deviation. That is, there is a 68% probability that the count will be between 499,000-501,000 and a 99% probability that the counts will be between 497,000-503,000.

Bilbo the people who were trying to prove man made global warming didn't make the wrong calls because they were flipping a coin, that might give them an outcome they didn't want.